Patriots: -7, buy the hook to -6.5, or tease?

Monkey4 · Feb 4, 2005

I'm headed out to Vegas and my mind is set on the Patriots - I am convinced they will win. :suomi:

I expect a 10+ point victory, but I'm not as sure the Patriots will cover as I am that they will find a way to win.

The moneyline is too high at -250+.

So, do I:
1) Take the Patriots at -7? (I'm still leaning towards this)
2) Buy the hook down to -6.5 (where can I do this and at what cost)?
3) Tease the Pats to PK and take a total, or another game?

:icon_conf

Roxygurl · Feb 4, 2005

i heard chuck esposito ,the caesars palace race&sportsbook director,say today he expects the line to move to 7.5 in the next 24/48 hours.that means new englands getting all the action so get your lines now.he kinda tipped his hand by saying the smart money came in right away nearly 2 weeks ago and now those who havent watched a game all year will be betting soon.i bet across the border in mexico and they bumped the line to 7.5 this afternoon.they usually follow vegas so they must know a line movement is coming.~RG

Monkey4 · Feb 4, 2005

Not that I doubt what you are saying... but wouldn't the sportsbooks be opening themselves up big time for a push/loss if they move the line off the 7?

Roxygurl · Feb 4, 2005

i promise vegas is about to move the line. theyve taken in millions since the title games and a line change probably wont hurt thier balanced action.by saturday night new england should be a 7.5 pt fav.maybe sooner.

t3a · Feb 4, 2005

Remember the line is meant to attract equal action on both sides. When this moves off 7, you can be pretty sure the books know that the game will either be much closer or a blowout, so they aren't worried about it landing on 7.

So if you are capping the game, do you think a close game or Philly win is more likely or a Pats DD win?

I think the 7.5 (or 8's) will be attracting casual bettors who will love getting a TD+, but as in most Super Bowls, the points won't matter. this line should be 10, but it doesn't need to be, there are enough people to buy into a team with Philly's record getting a TD+.

Philly is happy just to be here, of course they are now gonna say if they don't win it all the season is a disappointment etc....but beating 2 crap road teams in Minny and Atl will not prepare them for a focused team who already has shown they know what to do and how to get ready to win games like this.

BillCarson · Feb 4, 2005

Try one of The Stations casinos in Vegas..they took teasers last year on the game. Side and Total...

it usually works like this:

6 Point tease = 60/50 bet
6 1/2 point tease= 65/50 bet
7 point tease = 70/50 bet

arty:

t3a · Feb 4, 2005

Monkey4 said:
So, do I:
1) Take the Patriots at -7? (I'm still leaning towards this)
2) Buy the hook down to -6.5 (where can I do this and at what cost)?
3) Tease the Pats to PK and take a total, or another game?

What are you going to tease the NBA games that day? Don't mess with the total if you like NE, if you like a 10+ win don't worry how its done. How about taking taking Pats ML as your key and then parlay with a couple sides at -110 . Those 2 team parlays should pay you AT LEAST 2.5-1 so if you can go 4 out of 7 on other sides you will be ahead of the straight -250 ML.

Hoghead · Feb 4, 2005

What -250 ML???????

X-Files · Feb 4, 2005

Hoghead said:
What -250 ML???????

SIA has -255

Canbet -265

Pin, Oly, WWTS are higher.

X-Files · Feb 4, 2005

"SUPER BOWL LATE MONEY

"This time a year ago, the New England Patriots were favored by seven points against their NFC opponent in the Super Bowl.

"In Las Vegas betting shops, the money line attached to the Patriots was inordinately low for a 7-point favorite -- in the range of minus-220 rather than the minus-330 neighborhood usually seen on a team favored by a touchdown.

"..."I think that money line will come down from the 260s, 270s to as low as minus 220 (on the favorite), plus 180 (on the underdog)," said Kenny White, the top oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the company that provides betting lines to most of the state's casinos.

therxforum dot com

ElIguana · Feb 4, 2005

Monkey4, if you like the Pats that much, take `em at -7. Good chance for a win or push if you think they win the game. If you don't trust them to cover the -7 and want to tease, there is much more value in teasing Philly to +14. I know you won't like to bet against "your" team, but teasing Philly gives you 3 ways to win: Philly gets blown out (by up to 2 TDs), Philly loses a close one, or Philly wins outright. If you tease Pats, the ONLY way you win is if Pats win, period, AND you have to hit your other play, too, might as well play Pats ML if you're going to do that. I am teasing Philly with the under, also playing those sides individually as well. GL

Jarbo · Feb 4, 2005

El Iguana said:
Monkey4, if you like the Pats that much, take `em at -7. Good chance for a win or push if you think they win the game. If you don't trust them to cover the -7 and want to tease, there is much more value in teasing Philly to +14. I know you won't like to bet against "your" team, but teasing Philly gives you 3 ways to win: Philly gets blown out (by up to 2 TDs), Philly loses a close one, or Philly wins outright. If you tease Pats, the ONLY way you win is if Pats win, period, AND you have to hit your other play, too, might as well play Pats ML if you're going to do that. I am teasing Philly with the under, also playing those sides individually as well. GL

Nice post and solid reasoning IMHO

Luck

ElIguana · Feb 4, 2005

Thanks Jarbo. Usually better value teasing the dog, but hard to make yourself do it if you like the favorite. I have learned this through the school of hard knocks!

X-Files · Feb 4, 2005

Monkey4 said:
I'm headed out to Vegas and my mind is set on the Patriots - I am convinced they will win. I expect a 10+ point victory, but I'm not as sure the Patriots will cover as I am that they will find a way to win.

The moneyline is too high at -250+.

So, do I:
1) Take the Patriots at -7? (I'm still leaning towards this)
2) Buy the hook down to -6.5 (where can I do this and at what cost)?
3) Tease the Pats to PK and take a total, or another game?

How about door #4?

4} Take the Patriots -153 {Pinnacle} to win the first half
and the game?

Or #5...

5} NE scores 1st & wins the game -123?

Monkey4 · Feb 4, 2005

Well the good news is - I'm out in Vegas and the weather is supposed to hit the 60's today and the UFC weigh-ins are only hours away.

The bad news is, I still don't know what I want to bet on yet. I did consider that Patriots to win half and game - but like all of these other options, the Patriots could still win and I could somehow lose. I think it's going to come down to either laying the 7 or the moneyline if it gets low enough. Thanks for all the suggestions! :103631605

RightSide · Feb 4, 2005

X Files....your avitar is AWSOME!!! Holy shnikees....what a shot!!

...I think the Pats win by 10+. I wouldn't worry about the line movement.

bubba-sc · Feb 4, 2005

Monkey4 said:
Well the good news is - I'm out in Vegas and the weather is supposed to hit the 60's today and the UFC weigh-ins are only hours away.

The bad news is, I still don't know what I want to bet on yet. I did consider that Patriots to win half and game - but like all of these other options, the Patriots could still win and I could somehow lose. I think it's going to come down to either laying the 7 or the moneyline if it gets low enough. Thanks for all the suggestions!

Welcome to SinCity, Monkey. Well, you are what makes the town a huge success, a bettor with a lot of question marks and a burning hole in your pocket. Just because it's the SuperBowl and a big game, it doesnt mean you have to bet. Since you already have a good hunch with the Pats, just lay the 7 and look for the best moneyline price. If you're still leary, spend what you can on the Pats moneyline- if you want to maximize your payout and don't like the steep moneyline odds, parlay it with the first half (24) unders. HTH

bubba-sc · Feb 4, 2005

bubba-sc said:
you want to maximize your payout and don't like the steep moneyline odds, parlay it with the first half (24) unders. HTH

Correction: I wouldnt do this with a moneyline parlay in this situation. Just seperate them, and you'll get a similar payout just betting the first half unders. Check some of the teaser opportunities- keep in mind just about all Vegas books dont let you parlay stuff off their superbowl prop sheets.